Since we published our midyear outlook in July, the global economy and capital markets have rebounded faster than expected in the third quarter of 2020. However, the pace of recovery in the coming months remains highly uncertain as mounting COVID-19 cases amid winter conditions, especially in Europe and the United States, may trigger another round of shutdowns and restrictions. Any further normalization of economic activity largely depends on how the pandemic evolves during the winter and, most importantly, when COVID-19 vaccines reach the general public. Even when the virus is controlled, economies are expected to continue dealing with the adverse impact of deteriorated fiscal balances and the effect of muted business investment on the labor market and consumer spending in 2021.
What does this mean for the oil and gas (O&G) industry? Global oil demand fell by 25% in April, but it has rebounded sharply since then, cutting its losses to just 8%. Looking ahead, 2021 oil demand is expected to recover strongly but remain lower than it was at pre–COVID-19 levels-about 4% lower in the base case, and about 7% lower in Rystad Energy`s second-wave scenario. Similarly, oil prices and energy stocks have underperformed base metals and the broader S&P 500 index by about 10% and 25% and 6% and 10%, respectively, since July 2020. Mass layoffs and heightened cyclicality in employment continue to challenge the industry`s reputation as a reliable employer. US O&G companies laid off about 14% of permanent employees in 2020, and our research shows that 70% of jobs lost during the pandemic may not come back by the end of 2021.
Although the oil and gas sector is used to the highs and lows of economic and price cycles, this downturn seems unlike any other. In fact, it`s the [great compression" of the O&G industry. With the survival of many companies at risk, and the longer-term decline in petroleum demand, the next decade could look very different for the entire O&G value chain. 2021 will either be a leapfrog year or a test of endurance for many. We see five oil and gas trends that may challenge traditional methods of oil and gas production in 2021, determine the direction of the industry, and begin separating the pioneers from the followers.
